Lexington
The view from the scaffold
A return to Youngstown points to the solidity and limits of Donald Trumps fan base
Sep 10th 2020 | words 1133
A FEW DAYS before the 2016 election, when the nature of Donald Trumps appeal to his supporters was a matter of hot debate, Lexington joined a local builders union boss on a tour of construction sites in Youngstown, Ohio. Most of Rocco DiGennarosmale and almost exclusively whiteLocal 125 members intended to vote Trump, despite many having only ever voted Democratic before. Your columnist wanted to know why.
By far their most common explanation was a hatred for Hillary Clinton. Nearly all the workmen said the Democratic candidate was dishonest and corrupt. By contrast, many expressed weaker or less defined feelings towards Mr Trump. They said they liked his tough talk, especially on immigration, and that he was a businessman. Many thought he could sort out Washington, DC, and the economy (though Youngstowns construction industry was already booming). Those perceived qualities duly won Mr Trump a record share of white working-class votesand thus the presidency. Even so, it was not obvious back then that his supporters would develop the ironclad allegiance to him many now profess.
Their devotion was apparent during a re-run of your columnists tour around Youngstown, again in Mr DiGennaros entertaining company. Youre going to hear the same again, only more intense, the burly ex-builder had predicted. He wasnt wrong. Interviews with a score of workers on a large development project at Youngstown State University, involving several construction companies and sites, did not suggest Mr Trump had increased his local support. As in 2016, perhaps a third of the workers claimed to have no interest in the election. Yet almost all who had voted for him in 2016, even if tentatively, now vigorously endorsed him.
Hes done a great job, hes got everyone back to work. Im pretty much 100% for him, said Kyle, a 30-year-old electrician. He shoots his mouth off but at least that shows hes honest, said Jason, a pipe-fitter, who said he especially liked Mr Trumps commitment to reducing the national debt. Hes done more for our country than the past ten presidents put together, said an older builder, Jeff, skimming wet concrete on a new road. Hes madewho is it, China or Japan?pay our farmers billions of dollars. He got health care done, which the Democrats could never do. He built the wall.
The only anti-Trump voice Lexington heardaside from that of Mr DiGennaro, a blue-dog Democratbelonged to Jeffs boss, Greg, ladling concrete alongside him. I think Trumps bad for the country, bad for morals, a bad example to my children and I want him out, he saidthen added that his Fox News-addict wife disagreed: I think were going to get divorced and Im not joking.
This snapshot illustrates how Mr Trump has not so much divided America as cemented its differences. Despite Joe Bidens polling lead, Republicans are solidly behind the president. He is the most popular president with his own party on record: 94% of the people who voted for him in 2016 intend to do so again. Mr Bidens lead owes more to his success in mobilising Democrats and former third-party voters against the president than shrinking his vote.
The construction workers erroneous takes on Mr Trumps record (his administration in fact turbocharged the debt even before covid-19 struck, has reduced health-care coverage and has a lot of wall left to build) offered a clue to how he has exerted such control over his party. Notwithstanding the strength of the pre-covid economy, the loyalty of Mr Trumps voters is notor not mostlya response to his policies or record. Political scientistson the left and rightlong ago discovered that most voters are flexible on such matters. They choose leaders who seem to reflect their values, rearrange their policy priorities accordingly and, in a hyper-polarised environment, also to an extent their critical judgments.
Thus the alacrity with which Republicans ditched free trade and fiscal conservatism. Thus, too, the transformation in how they viewed the economy within days of the 2016 election. Mr Trumps subsequent success in binding in his supporters ever tighter owes to the relentlessness with which he has highlighted, again and again, the values they have entrusted him with and the threats to those values, real and imagined, he claims his critics present.
Unlike any predecessor, he has never stopped campaigning. He held a hundred rallies as presidentnot including presidential set pieces, such as state-of-the-union addresses, that he treats as purely political eventsbefore his re-election campaign began. He has decried even conservative critics as enemies of what he and his voters stand for. The effect of this constant grandstanding is to keep challenging his supporters to recommit themselves to him, publicly or privately, and in the process harden their loyalty.
The only significant area of disagreement in this analysis, between scholars on the right and left, concerns what values the president is asserting. Those on the right tend to stress the populist qualities of his America First agenda: nationalism, paternalism, toughnessmuch of which Mr Trumps supporters in Youngstown seemed to appreciate. I want to see an end to international trade deals and all that stuff: Im America First, said Tony, an engineer.
Not so shy
The liberal consensus has the same listbut adds racial anxiety to it. And Mr Trumps race-baitingwhich he is now stepping up in veiled attacks on Mr Bidens running-mate, Kamala Harrismakes that hard to refute. So, for that matter, did the receptiveness of some in Youngstown to it. George, an electrician, described Mr Bidens as a Trojan Horse for Ms Harris: Hed resign on day one and then youve got your first woman president and shes black, too.
The presidents advisers suggest the polls are missing many shy Trumpers. But the alacrity with which Trump supporters defend his chauvinism and sometimes display their own makes that seem unlikely. It perhaps also explains why, notwithstanding his lock on his base, Mr Trump is struggling to expand it.
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